The Future of EVs Under Trump: Challenges and Opportunities for Cobalt

The return of Donald Trump to the American presidency is likely to have a lasting impact on the electric vehicle (EV) and renewable energy sectors, not just in 2025 but throughout his term.

One of his administration’s first moves was suspending a $5 billion programme designed to expand fast-charging stations across the United States—a key initiative under Biden aimed at accelerating EV adoption. Trump, who has been strongly backed by the US oil industry, has made his stance clear: “Drill, baby, drill.”

“When I'm president, no state in America will be permitted to ban gas-powered cars or trucks, and I guarantee it—no way,” he declared. This message was a direct appeal to the rust-belt voters and the NASCAR mums and dads who contributed to his election victory.

The Irony of Musk’s Role in the Administration

Ironically, the world’s most famous EV entrepreneur, Elon Musk, is taking on an unpaid advisory role in the Trump administration. This could place Tesla in a precarious position, particularly if Trump’s policies hinder the EV market.

While Tesla’s position in the EV sector has been dominant, global sales trends indicate a shift. According to Bloomberg, only 1,141 Tesla vehicles were registered in France in January 2025, marking a 63% decline. In Germany, registrations dropped 41% year-on-year. Across the EU, Tesla sales fell by 13% in 2024.

However, this does not signal a decline in the broader EV market. While Tesla faces headwinds, EV adoption remains steady, with BMW surpassing Tesla in sales and Volvo rapidly gaining ground. The transition to clean technology and EVs is continuing, with or without Musk’s leadership.

The US Auto Industry’s Risk of Falling Behind

Trump’s policies present a challenge not just for Tesla but for the US auto industry as a whole. A rollback of EV incentives and domestic hostility toward Tesla could weaken American automakers’ ability to compete globally. Meanwhile, European and Chinese manufacturers are pushing ahead with EV innovation.

If the US auto sector fails to adapt, it risks falling behind in an industry that is shifting inexorably toward clean energy. At some point, even the US will have to acknowledge that the climate crisis is worsening and that EVs are the future, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles belong to the past. Whether the US can catch up to China and Europe in technological innovation remains uncertain.

Cobalt’s Critical Role in the Energy Transition

Regardless of short-term political shifts, the global EV market is projected to grow from 14 million vehicles in 2024 to an estimated 45 million by 2030. This sustained growth will continue driving demand for cobalt, a key component in lithium-ion batteries.

Emerging markets in Asia and Africa are also becoming significant players in both EV production and mineral supply chains. The Democratic Republic of Congo remains the dominant force, supplying around 70% of the world's cobalt. However, to mitigate geopolitical risks, countries like Australia and Canada are ramping up production to diversify the supply chain.

Technological advancements are also shaping cobalt’s future. Researchers are working to reduce cobalt content in batteries or develop alternative chemistries altogether. However, transitioning away from cobalt will be neither easy nor immediate due to several key factors:

• Performance Advantages: Cobalt offers higher energy density, better charge cycling, and longer battery lifespan compared to most current alternatives.
• Infrastructure Investments: Battery manufacturers and supply chains are heavily invested in cobalt-based technologies, making a sudden transition costly and complex.
• Regulatory & Industrial Resistance: Retooling production lines and shifting to alternative chemistries require significant investment and regulatory approvals, slowing down large-scale adoption.

While cobalt’s role may evolve, its importance in battery production will remain significant for the foreseeable future.

The Need for Sustainable Cobalt Production

Sustainability concerns continue to cast a shadow over the cobalt industry, particularly regarding child labour and environmental impact. Ethical mining practices are essential to securing a responsible supply chain, but industry players cannot tackle these challenges alone.

Ensuring cobalt production meets the highest ethical and environmental standards will require a collective effort—one that demands industry leadership, collaboration with policymakers, and ongoing investment in responsible sourcing practices.